Agricultural economists predicted strong hog prices for the next 18 months, with future profitability dependent upon producers not significantly expanding upon their breeding herds in 2000 and beyond.

“We don’t have to increase sow herds by very much to be in trouble by 2002,” Glenn Grimes, agricultural economist at the University of Missouri said at a World Pork Expo news conference June 8-10 in Indianapolis, Ind. Grimes was joined by Chris Hurt, agricultural economist at Purdue University and Len Steiner, owner of Steiner and Company of Manchester, N.H.

Increased demand for meat products is attributed in part to the growing popularity of high protein diets and a good economy, which have given consumers the ability to purchase more and higher valued meat products.

“We do not need any more sows to supply this increased demand,” said Hurt, adding that increased sow productivity and potentially shrinking slaughter capacity will not allow producers to have the same strategies they had in the 1990s regarding expansion.

Steiner noted that as the most consumed meat in the world, there is room for growth in the pork industry. However, “for the pork industry to remain profitable, they have to get some control on how fast they are going to grow,” he said. “We expect markets will be good for hog producers if they control their enthusiasm.”

Hurt said this year's pork supplies are expected to remain about 2 percent lower that last year, and future expansion will be put off until winter or spring 2001, resulting in a possible surplus as early as next summer.